Start here · Essential guide
Statistics Literacy for Sports and Esports Fans
A practical guide to reading numbers in sport, esports and the news: samples, averages, percentages, models and the common ways statistics mislead.
Chance Beyond Games
Statistics Literacy
Reading sports, esports and news statistics without being misled.
Averages Versus Medians in Player Stats
Learn when the mean is dragged around by outliers and the median gives a fairer picture of a player's typical performance, with a simple worked example.
Cherry-Picked Statistics and How to Spot Them
See how selective time windows, splits and comparisons produce misleading claims in sport and esports, and which questions help you spot them.
Correlation Is Not Causation
Illustrative sport and gaming examples show how two numbers can move together because of a hidden shared cause, and how to question a claimed link.
Expected Goals and Other Model-Based Stats
What expected goals and similar model-based statistics measure, how they are built from past data, and the limits worth remembering when reading them.
Reading Elo Ratings and Matchmaking Numbers
How Elo-style ratings turn a rating gap into an expected score, how ratings update after a game, and what matchmaking numbers can and cannot tell you.
Regression to the Mean in Sport
Why standout seasons and record-breaking runs are often followed by more ordinary results, and why that is usually luck evening out rather than a slump.
Small Sample Sizes and Misleading Records
Why a handful of games tells you little about true ability, with a simple coin example showing how easily short records look better or worse than reality.
Survivorship Bias in Success Stories
How hearing only from winners and survivors distorts our view of what works in sport, esports and gaming, and how to look for the missing cases.
Understanding Percentages and Percentage Points
A clear explanation of the difference between percentages and percentage points, relative versus absolute change, and how headlines can make the same change sound bigger.
Related topics