Start here · Essential guide
Probability Theory for Gamers: A Primer
A plain-language primer on outcomes, events, independence and the addition and multiplication rules, with dice and playing card examples worked by hand.
Foundations
Probability Basics
Core ideas and tools for working out chances.
Complement Rule: Finding the Chance Something Does Not Happen
Learn how subtracting the chance of nothing happening from one makes 'at least once' problems quick, with dice, card and loot drop examples checked by hand.
Essential Probability Concepts for Gamers
Expected value and variance explained with simple dice, roulette and in-game examples: the two numbers that summarise any repeated bet or choice.
From Chance to Probability: A Gaming Primer
How dice and card puzzles in the 1500s and 1600s, including the Pascal and Fermat letters of 1654, led to probability becoming a branch of mathematics.
Key Concepts in Gaming Probability
Conditional probability explained with card draws and dice: why removed cards change later odds, why dice rolls do not, and how to calculate each case.
Math in Gaming: Understanding Probability
How to convert between fractions, decimals, percentages, odds for and odds against, with hand-checked examples from dice, cards and roulette wheels.
Mental Math for Gaming: Probability Tricks
Quick ways to estimate chances in your head, including the complement shortcut and the outs-times-two rule, with checks on how far each can be off.
Monte Carlo Methods for Gaming Probability
How repeated random simulation estimates probabilities that are too messy to work out by hand, and how the number of trials controls the accuracy.
Number Crunching: Using Probability in Gaming
Combinations and permutations explained with cards, dice and party picks: how counting methods give hand counts and draw outcomes you can check by hand.
Probability Distributions in Plain Language
A plain-language introduction to discrete probability distributions, including uniform and binomial, using dice, coins and loot tables as examples.
Probability in Action: Real-World Gaming Examples
A set of hand-checked worked examples using dice, playing cards, spinners and loot drops, each labelled as an illustration, with every step shown.
The Binomial Distribution with Dice and Coins
Compute the chance of exactly k successes in n independent tries using the binomial formula, with coin and dice examples and a full table checked by hand.
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