Probability by Game

Dice and Coins

Exact probabilities for dice rolls and coin tosses.

Coin Toss Probability and Runs of Heads

How likely are runs of heads in short and long sequences of fair coin tosses? Worked examples show why long streaks are normal in random data.

4 min read

How Fair Is a Real Coin Flip

What does a fair coin mean in maths, and how close are real coin flips? A general look at physical coin bias research and the fair coin assumption.

4 min read

Loaded Dice and How to Test a Die for Bias

How to test a die for bias using frequency counts and a simple chi-square calculation, with a worked example and notes on what a result can and cannot show.

4 min read

The Chance of Rolling at Least One Six

Why four rolls of a die give about a 52 percent chance of at least one six, not 67 percent, and how the complement rule makes such problems easy.

4 min read

The Chevalier de Mere Dice Problem

The 17th-century dice puzzle behind early probability theory: one six in four rolls versus a double six in 24 rolls of two dice, with the exact numbers.

4 min read

Yahtzee Odds: Chances of Five of a Kind

Worked Yahtzee odds: the chance of five of a kind in a single roll, after rerolls, and when holding three or four matching dice, checked by hand.

4 min read

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